08-08-2016, 01:17 PM
(08-08-2016, 12:13 PM)Duchess Wrote:
HotD, I'd be interested in reading your opinion on what a 3rd party candidate will mean in this race. It's being said that Evan McMullin will be making an announcement soon.
I don't know much about McMullin or the strategy to insert him into the race. It looks to me like he's more a Utah option for Mormon Republicans who, by and large, can't stand Donald Trump. I don't think he'll get much traction nationally if he gets on the ballot, but he'll likely snag some votes from Trump in the state.
Gary Johnson is the more viable national Republican alternative. He's already snagged votes from Republicans and Independents who won't vote for Trump or consider Clinton.
I hope Johnson does well and that his showing influences the future of the Republican party via more socially inclusive/liberal views and a commitment to small fiscally conservative government. Ron Paul was too early for the political and social climates when he ran. Rand Paul contorted himself too much for the Republican establishment and sacrificed some Libertarian principles in the process. Now's a better time and situation for a Libertarian candidate, especially one that's not running under the GOP umbrella. Johnson won't win, but he has the potential to have an impact on party politics moving forward.
Combined, the current and potential third party candidates will take far more of the traditional Republican and right-leaning Independent vote from Trump than the traditional Democratic and left-leaning Independent vote from Clinton. Plus, Clinton's getting some Republicans who can't swallow the Libertarians' non-interventionist foreign policy.
Stein is getting some Independent votes that reject Trump and may have considered Clinton, but I don't think she'll get enough support to reach double digits and really hurt Clinton much unless the general election turns out to be extremely close, which I don't anticipate at this point.