11-24-2015, 10:00 AM
It's a very big deal and potential set back to the newly formed diplomatic coalition, now inclusive of Russia and Iran.
Turkey maintains that the Russian military plane was in Turkish airspace and that the plane was warned 10 times before it was targeted. Russia insists that its plane was in Syrian airspace. Personally, I don't think it matters much.
Turkey and Russia are supposed to be setting aside longstanding animosity while in the process of fulfilling their roles as part of the global team to combat ISIS. If the Turks knew that the plane was Russia's, whether it was slightly inside Turk airspace or not, will other coalition members and NATO stand behind Turkey for aggression in response to what will be nearly impossible to prove was anything other than a technical violation? I think they might have to support Turkey publicly or push the "error - failure to communicate" narrative.
But, I bet Bagdhadi is laughing. And, I bet that Obama and Hollande are effin' livid with Erdogen. Negotiating a cease-fire between Syrian rebels and Assad's forces has gotten nowhere for 4 years. Finally, the two countries that have a lot of pull with Assad (Russia and Iran) are at the peace talks' table and there's a real possibility for progress..........and now this: coalition members at odds with each other right off the bat.
I hope this incident doesn't derail the cease fire negotiation process. I hope the missing Russian pilot is found alive. And, I hope he and the pilot who parachuted from his plane are both turned over to the Russians quickly (and Russia keeps its ass out of Turkey moving forward). That could help deescalate the internal conflict.
Turkey maintains that the Russian military plane was in Turkish airspace and that the plane was warned 10 times before it was targeted. Russia insists that its plane was in Syrian airspace. Personally, I don't think it matters much.
Turkey and Russia are supposed to be setting aside longstanding animosity while in the process of fulfilling their roles as part of the global team to combat ISIS. If the Turks knew that the plane was Russia's, whether it was slightly inside Turk airspace or not, will other coalition members and NATO stand behind Turkey for aggression in response to what will be nearly impossible to prove was anything other than a technical violation? I think they might have to support Turkey publicly or push the "error - failure to communicate" narrative.
But, I bet Bagdhadi is laughing. And, I bet that Obama and Hollande are effin' livid with Erdogen. Negotiating a cease-fire between Syrian rebels and Assad's forces has gotten nowhere for 4 years. Finally, the two countries that have a lot of pull with Assad (Russia and Iran) are at the peace talks' table and there's a real possibility for progress..........and now this: coalition members at odds with each other right off the bat.
I hope this incident doesn't derail the cease fire negotiation process. I hope the missing Russian pilot is found alive. And, I hope he and the pilot who parachuted from his plane are both turned over to the Russians quickly (and Russia keeps its ass out of Turkey moving forward). That could help deescalate the internal conflict.