NORTH KOREA & NUKES -- IS CHANGE ON THE HORIZON?

[HairOfTheDog]

North Korea exists in it present form solely because of China, what Trump negotiates with China will be what happens.

China does not control North Korea literally or figuratively. And the U.S. most certainly does not control Xi's China. Chinese economic sanctions against North Korea can severely punish Kim and the North Korean people, but that's not going to achieve NK de-nuclearization.

What Xi wants most is stabilization of the peninsula; that includes dramatic reduction of all the U.S. forces there which China does not welcome.

China would prefer it if NK was denuclearized, of course. However, China does not want to be responsible for starving North Koreans to death nor taking in millions of North Korean refugees if sudden regime change were to occur in NK.

I assume China would also not welcome western occupation of NK and/or having to suddenly take on a leadership role in Korean re-unification or temporary ruling over very poor North Korea. That could set back China's global economic goals.

Anyway, the U.S. and China will not solely determine North Korea's future. The reason Kim has built the country's identity around nuclearization is to secure its autonomy and his own power. Kim and South Korean President Moon really are key players in what happens next.

I do not believe that Kim is going to agree to anything more than halting nuclear testing (the testing has already been completed anyway) and halting new nuclear weapon development, if the terms of negotiation benefit North Korea economically. I think it would be a mistake for Trump to assume that he or Xi can force rather than negotiate the terms of the deal without very serious repercussions.