04-10-2016, 02:06 PM
I don't think the DNC would make history (in a bad way) by going against the will of the voters. It wouldn't make sense. Bernie soundly trounces Cruz and beats Trump in current general election polls, Hillary not so much. Also, if Bernie's large youth and Independent bases stayed home because he was denied the nomination, that would hurt Clinton and the Democratic party. The DNC will not hand Hillary the nomination just to deny giving it to Bernie; the Democrats are in too strong a general election position to make such a self-destructive move. I think Bernie in the White House is much more appealing to them than a Republican.
I do agree with you, however, about Sanders not likely being able to catch up with Clinton in voter/earned delegates anyway. I think it's highly likely that Clinton will earn the Democratic nomination without a contested convention. If she does, I bet the DNC is hoping it's Trump that gets the Republican nomination because Hillary has a better chance of beating him than she does Kasich or even Cruz, in my opinion.
Anyway, the RNC, not the DNC, is the only party with a delegate loyalty issue in this particular election and that's simply because none of the 3 candidates has a viable chance of earning the 1,237 voter delegate majority at this point. There were too many GOP candidates in their race for too long and the remaining three are splitting the remainder of the votes between themselves.
I think it would be a huge hit to the Republican party if Donald Trump is way ahead in voter/earned delegates but is denied the nomination at the Convention in July. But, he keeps bitching about the process/rules not being fair when they're the same for every Republican candidate. I don't think he understood at all how the delegation worked and what would be going down at a contested convention until recently, but Cruz and Kasich sure as hell did. Cruz and Kasich understand well that plurality and majority are not the same, and that a plurality of delegates doesn't guarantee Trump squat.
Trump should have been meeting with delegates months ago if he was serious about winning the presidency; it's no secret that the RNC and Republican delegates may well consider a Trump nomination death to the party. So, they just might vote it to Cruz or Kasich even if Trump has a sizable earned/voter delegate lead. The RNC doesn't really have a winning option this election, in my view.
Anyway, Trump's obviously now aware of how losing some support over the last couple of weeks (making 1,237 even less likely) and failing to understand the process has cost him. He's now secured Paul Manafort as his primary campaign manager, smart move. I don't know if it will help him improve delegate loyalty, but I think it's his best bet. Manafort and the staff he'll be bringing to the Trump campaign were instrumental in delegate loyalty strategies and floor fighting at the last contested Republican national convention between Reagan and Ford back in 1976.
I do agree with you, however, about Sanders not likely being able to catch up with Clinton in voter/earned delegates anyway. I think it's highly likely that Clinton will earn the Democratic nomination without a contested convention. If she does, I bet the DNC is hoping it's Trump that gets the Republican nomination because Hillary has a better chance of beating him than she does Kasich or even Cruz, in my opinion.
Anyway, the RNC, not the DNC, is the only party with a delegate loyalty issue in this particular election and that's simply because none of the 3 candidates has a viable chance of earning the 1,237 voter delegate majority at this point. There were too many GOP candidates in their race for too long and the remaining three are splitting the remainder of the votes between themselves.
I think it would be a huge hit to the Republican party if Donald Trump is way ahead in voter/earned delegates but is denied the nomination at the Convention in July. But, he keeps bitching about the process/rules not being fair when they're the same for every Republican candidate. I don't think he understood at all how the delegation worked and what would be going down at a contested convention until recently, but Cruz and Kasich sure as hell did. Cruz and Kasich understand well that plurality and majority are not the same, and that a plurality of delegates doesn't guarantee Trump squat.
Trump should have been meeting with delegates months ago if he was serious about winning the presidency; it's no secret that the RNC and Republican delegates may well consider a Trump nomination death to the party. So, they just might vote it to Cruz or Kasich even if Trump has a sizable earned/voter delegate lead. The RNC doesn't really have a winning option this election, in my view.
Anyway, Trump's obviously now aware of how losing some support over the last couple of weeks (making 1,237 even less likely) and failing to understand the process has cost him. He's now secured Paul Manafort as his primary campaign manager, smart move. I don't know if it will help him improve delegate loyalty, but I think it's his best bet. Manafort and the staff he'll be bringing to the Trump campaign were instrumental in delegate loyalty strategies and floor fighting at the last contested Republican national convention between Reagan and Ford back in 1976.