11-08-2016, 02:03 PM
The Trump campaign continues to claim that American Hispanics/Latinos will break big for Trump. If they're right, I'll be shocked, but it would really help Trump's chances. Aside from older generation Cuban Americans, I think Trump's going to get a significantly lower percentage of the growing Hispanic/Latino vote than his Republican predecessors.
2004 George W. Bush (winner), 40% of Latino vote
2008 John McCain (loser), 31% of Latino vote
2012 Mitt Romney (loser), 27% of Latino vote
So far, African American turn-out is significantly lower for Clinton than it was for Obama. It'll be interesting to see if Clinton makes up that deficit with record numbers of votes from Latinos and Independent women + Republican women from the 'never Trump' camp.
2004 George W. Bush (winner), 40% of Latino vote
2008 John McCain (loser), 31% of Latino vote
2012 Mitt Romney (loser), 27% of Latino vote
So far, African American turn-out is significantly lower for Clinton than it was for Obama. It'll be interesting to see if Clinton makes up that deficit with record numbers of votes from Latinos and Independent women + Republican women from the 'never Trump' camp.