07-23-2014, 12:33 PM
It's just sad all the way around.
I don't think whoever launched that missile had any idea what they were really targeting -- it's a huge FAIL for their image, their cause, their integrity -- nothing to gain from it.
I can't see any way that the Ukraine government or military would have launched that missile. Yeah, they're capitalizing on the tragedy and getting some short term gain from it, but the conspiracy theory that they downed a plane with intent to frame the separatists makes no sense to me. Putin's pissed at Ukraine for identifying more with the West than his Eastern European block, ousting his PM puppet, and making a NATO bid. That's what got the whole Crimea annexation and separatist fervor kicked off.
So, no way, Ukraine would shoot down a plane filled with European civilians or carrying Putin for any reason. And, I can't see them mistaking a commercial flight for a Russian military plane. Russia could take the Ukraine down militarily in a nano second. And, it would compromise the Ukrainian government's goals to take down its ally's civilians or assassinate Putin.
It makes most sense, to me, that separatists thought it was another Ukraine military plane and shot it down under that pretext. It's simply exactly what it appears to be. If that's true and it's confirmed that the missile was launched by separatists trained and/or supplied by Russia, Putin had to know what was going down at the border.
Even so, money talks. Despite the loss of European lives, I don't think that Germany is gonna go for stricter sanctions -- they rely so heavily on Russia for energy and won't wanna risk the supply being cut off or the prices soaring. Plus, I think Merkel is still pissed about the phone taps -- she seems on better terms with Russia than the US, to me. The Netherlands is in debt to Russia. France doesn't want to halt its lucrative trade agreements...
IDK. It's easier for the US and Britain to push for big punitive measures that fit the crime because it won't affect our economies much -- we can hurt Putin and Russia more than they can hurt us -- but it's still not a huge hit to Russia without Europe. I really don't think Germany and France are gonna go for strict sanctions that could hurt their economies.
IMO, the big push will be on Putin to rein in the separatists, divest from supplying them with anything, and agree to peace talks and a swift agreement with Poroshenko. He won't admit to anything even if evidence points to Russia's involvement, but he'll back off on Ukraine and position himself as a peace-maker until things cool down. That's what I think is gonna happen anyway.
I don't think whoever launched that missile had any idea what they were really targeting -- it's a huge FAIL for their image, their cause, their integrity -- nothing to gain from it.
I can't see any way that the Ukraine government or military would have launched that missile. Yeah, they're capitalizing on the tragedy and getting some short term gain from it, but the conspiracy theory that they downed a plane with intent to frame the separatists makes no sense to me. Putin's pissed at Ukraine for identifying more with the West than his Eastern European block, ousting his PM puppet, and making a NATO bid. That's what got the whole Crimea annexation and separatist fervor kicked off.
So, no way, Ukraine would shoot down a plane filled with European civilians or carrying Putin for any reason. And, I can't see them mistaking a commercial flight for a Russian military plane. Russia could take the Ukraine down militarily in a nano second. And, it would compromise the Ukrainian government's goals to take down its ally's civilians or assassinate Putin.
It makes most sense, to me, that separatists thought it was another Ukraine military plane and shot it down under that pretext. It's simply exactly what it appears to be. If that's true and it's confirmed that the missile was launched by separatists trained and/or supplied by Russia, Putin had to know what was going down at the border.
Even so, money talks. Despite the loss of European lives, I don't think that Germany is gonna go for stricter sanctions -- they rely so heavily on Russia for energy and won't wanna risk the supply being cut off or the prices soaring. Plus, I think Merkel is still pissed about the phone taps -- she seems on better terms with Russia than the US, to me. The Netherlands is in debt to Russia. France doesn't want to halt its lucrative trade agreements...
IDK. It's easier for the US and Britain to push for big punitive measures that fit the crime because it won't affect our economies much -- we can hurt Putin and Russia more than they can hurt us -- but it's still not a huge hit to Russia without Europe. I really don't think Germany and France are gonna go for strict sanctions that could hurt their economies.
IMO, the big push will be on Putin to rein in the separatists, divest from supplying them with anything, and agree to peace talks and a swift agreement with Poroshenko. He won't admit to anything even if evidence points to Russia's involvement, but he'll back off on Ukraine and position himself as a peace-maker until things cool down. That's what I think is gonna happen anyway.