10-16-2016, 01:40 AM
(10-15-2016, 01:24 PM)Maggot Wrote: It will be tough for Trump to win with no voter I.D. laws in place. I have to show my drivers license as it should be military ID or State id works too. Not so in quite a few liberal states and I don't know why.
If Donald Trump loses, I don't think it will have anything to do with the huge mythical problem of voter fraud, nor will it be because the system is supposedly rigged, nor will it be because of the media, Mags. Those are Trump's excuses, but they aren't logical, in my opinion.
The system hasn't changed much since Nixon, Reagan, Bush and Bush were elected, except for there being more GOP-driven restrictive voter laws in the majority of states, making it harder for citizens who don't have a driver license or photo ID to vote. And, by far the most-viewed cable news network, FOX, along with very high-traffic internet media sites like Drudge and Breitbart, are unabashedly pro-Trump (he's even got their gurus on his campaign/advisory staff).
If Donald Trump loses, it will be because what he's said and done and the way he's said and done it has alienated a majority of voters in all demographics except for senior citizens and white men. And, even with white men, he's pulling in a smaller percentage of those with college educations than the Republican candidates before him.
To make things worse for the GOP, their goal of adjusting their message and policies to attract more women, more young people, and more minorities (which is what Paul Ryan and company had been working on) has been seriously harshed, for now, by Donald Trump's candidacy. He's not only failed to expand Republican support with those voter groups, he's managed to push the existing share down.
A political party which has almost exclusively catered to and relied upon white men, evangelicals (and Mormons), and the wealthy will be challenged to win a presidential election when nationally women outnumber men, white men are a decreasing portion of the population, the portion of the population identifying with organized religions is decreasing, there are far more poor and middle income people than there are wealthy people (and the power of wealth on politics is being strongly pushed back on), and the number of young people of voting age has surpassed the number of old people.
When the Republican candidate is less qualified and more alienating than those before him, the victory challenge for the party is greatly intensified, especially if voter turn-out across all demographics is high. In my humble opinion.
I think the Democratic Party needs to make some changes from its established ways too if it wants to maintain a strong party-affiliated base at a time when the number of Independents has surpassed the number of people committed to either party. I won't be surprised if an Independent candidate or a third party candidate has a real chance at being elected in 2020 or 2024.