ELECTION 2020

[BigMark]

Hyperbole.

[Rootilda]

You put the pee in hyperbole.

[Duchess]

You make it sound like blacks/Hispanics hate Trump. You may want to research that.

   They wish he'd take a long walk off a short pier!

[cannongal]

According to 'mur,  Sanders took the Democratic primary in NH.  Big Whoop-  Everyone knows Warren is going to get the nomination, whether she's earned it or not.

The numbers do show that people in my state are bi-polar, tho-

77,000 people believe in Socialism
68,000 people believe in the youth of a nation
55,000 people like being screamed at in a nasally voice 
25,000 people are wannabe Indians
23,000 people like seeing women and young girls get pawed at by a creepy old man
I'm going to skip over Tom & Tulsi because I didn't pay any attention to them
7,000 people want to see all the major corporations move to another country.
Bloomer wasn't even on the ticket....

In other news,  Biden was quoted on TV (earlier in the day) saying he was going to be in the state until the last vote was counted, then jumped on a plane before the polls even closed.   

I was a democrat for all of 4 minutes yesterday- however, I did have some interesting phone conversations.

Team Bernie:  Can we count on your vote?
Me: No, I don't think so.
Team Bernie:  May I ask who you are supporting, then?  
Me:  Probably you, If Bernie wins.....


Andrew Yang for president:  We'd really like your support today,  Can I answer any questions for you?
Me:  yeah, what's the contingency plan?
AYFP: Contingency plan? 
Me: yes,  you know, the back up plan for when the major corporations he's going to tax either move to another country or jack up prices to cover the cost.
AYFP: (sputtering) well, that's not going to happen.
Me:  I know, cause there's no fuckin way in Hell yang is going to be elected.  Have a good day!


Warren Campaign:  Elizabeth really needs you to vote for her
Me:  Liz needs a lot of things, like a hefty dose of reality comes to mind.
Warren Campaign:  ............Crickets...........




Meh-it'll be interesting to see if the projections match the primaries in other states.

[Maggot]

I'm glad it's over. This is how you do an election though, no troubles at all.

[Duchess]

I hate politics and I've never been more interested in anything in all my life.

[HairOfTheDog]

I hate politics and I've never been more interested in anything in all my life.

Yeah, it's been really interesting having so many qualified Democratic candidates in the race for so long.  But, it's good to see the filed finally narrowing a bit as Super Tuesday nears (March 3^rd). 

It's time for the Democrats to start focusing on beating Trump rather than beating each other, which Bloomberg has been doing effectively by avoiding competing in the early states and running tons of tv ads.  He's sure risen quickly in the polls over the last couple of weeks.

Anyway,  Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett officially suspended their campaigns after failing to win in delegates in the New Hampshire primary yesterday.

[HairOfTheDog]

Bernie got the most votes and delegates in New Hampshire, followed closely by Buttigieg and then Klobuchar; all getting between 20 and 26%.  I really like each of of them on a number of issues and in general.  

I feel bad for Elizabeth Warren finishing with under 10%.  She is very good at policy construction, communication, and focusing on what's good for all citizens (in her view), especially in terms of consumer protection.   Plus, she got in the race first and has worked her ass off.   I hope she does better in the upcoming states.

I'm not surprised that Biden isn't doing well with voters so far and don't think he's going to do great in the more demographically diverse states he's counting on.  Whenever he's interviewed, he says a whole lot of nothing or contradicts his own 'I'm the most electable and able to beat Trump' pitch.  

Joe Biden is likable and was a good wing-man for Obama in my opinion, but he's never been someone I thought should be leading the country and that view has been re-enforced rather than refuted with this third attempt at a Biden Presidency.  

As black voters see and hear more from the other more focused Democratic candidates, Biden's support with African Americans appears to be declining quickly as well.  If the polls are accurate, Bloomberg is benefiting the most, snagging a high percentage of Biden's previous black supporters.  

Biden still has a shot to win the Democratic nomination, of course, but I hope one of the other remaining contenders wins it instead.

[Rootilda]

I think Trump's smear campaign has had an effect on Biden's campaign but all those strange non sequiturs that Biden spews isn't helping him at all. "Lying dog-face pony soldier"? What the fuck is that?

I saw a poll yesterday that showed a huge drop in support for Biden and nearly the same amount of increase for Bloomberg and the conjecture was that black voters are going with the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump because that's their number one priority right now.

[HairOfTheDog]

I think Trump's smear campaign has had an effect on Biden's campaign but all those strange non sequiturs that Biden spews isn't helping him at all.  "Lying dog-face pony soldier"?  What the fuck is that?

I saw a poll yesterday that showed a huge drop in support for Biden and nearly the same amount of increase for Bloomberg and the conjecture was that black voters are going with the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump because that's their number one priority right now.

For me, Trump's bullshit isn't really the problem (though if Biden fails, he may put the blame there).  I think Biden is simply not confidence-inspiring and that's his biggest problem.  

I've heard pundits claim the same regarding Bloomberg's 'surprise' rise with black voters, essentially that black voters are telling them they want Trump out and they'll support any candidate who can get that job done.   

I don't think that perspective/priority is unique to black voters, however.  I think it applies broadly to Democrats and justice-minded Independents. 

And, I don't think it's surprising at all that black voters could look past Bloomberg's old (and racially discriminatory) 'stop and frisk' program and get behind him rather than one of the other Dem contenders.

Bloomberg has acknowledged 'stop and frisk' was wrong, he's apologized, he's spent a lot of time and money in recent years addressing gun violence and establishing youth programs in poorer communities, he's advertising his work with Obama and Obama's praise of him, he really is a self-made billionaire who won't run out of money or have to bow to donors.........  

Why should/would black voters blackball Bloomberg?  And, who the hell would they vote for if they held such grudges?

Black people aren't inherently dumber (or smarter) than anyone else and it strikes me that political activists and pundits often seem to project their own feelings onto entire communities/races inaccurately.

I mean, the Clintons and Bernie and Biden and other Dem candidates were all said to be in hot water with black voters for supporting the crime bill that contributed to mass incarcerations decades ago.  Cory Booker and Kamala Harris were said to be in hot water for their actions as attorneys which disproportionately affected people of color.   Mayor Pete is said to be guilty of 'white male privilege' and actually makes a point of acknowledging it on the stump.  And, on and on and on.  

Even those who are not prejudiced and have fought for racial equality don't have perfectly clean hands when it comes to racial justice, in retrospect.  So, most voters (black or not) consider the intentions and full records of the candidates, and they put more weight on decent candidates' current practices and future proposals, in my observation.

[cannongal]

I'm surprised to hear that Bloomer is getting the uptick in black support.   I would have bet money that Warren would get the black vote, since Obama threw his full support behind her.

Sux to be Biden tho- imagine having the man you assisted for 8 years,  supporting 2 different women over you for president.

[HairOfTheDog]

Obama isn't endorsing or expressing support for any specific candidate(s) during the primaries, though several candidates are using their associations with him and his praise of them in their campaign efforts.  

He's said good things about all of them at one time or another.

He made it clear early last year that he'll wait until the Democratic candidate is decided by voters and then he'll campaign hard for the Democratic nominee in the general election cycle. I haven't seen him deviate from that commitment.

[HairOfTheDog]

Anyway, there's still a long way to go before the Democratic Convention in July.  

Candidates need to have secured 1,991 delegates by then to secure their names on the first ballot.  

Here's where they stand presently.

(HOTD 2/13:  Edited for updated delegate allocation)

If there are still several viable Democratic candidates by Convention time and none has reached 1,991.............that will result in a contested convention.  Hopefully, that won't happen.

The turn out in the Iowa caucus was reportedly about the same as 2016.  But, this week's NH primary broke 2008's turn out record in the state.  Looks like there's high voter enthusiasm.

On the Republican side, President Trump easily won both in Iowa and NH, though his sole competitor Bill Weld did garner 9% in NH.  Between Weld and write-in Republican names, Trump got 83% of the Republican vote in NH.

Refs:
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/799979293...dates-have
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/
https://www.unionleader.com/news/politic...113f3.html

[cannongal]

Obama isn't endorsing or expressing support for any specific candidate(s) during the primaries, though several candidates are using their associations with him and his praise of them in their campaign efforts.  

He's said good things about all of them at one time or another.

He made it clear early last year that he'll wait until the Democratic candidate is decided by voters and then he'll campaign hard for the Democratic nominee in the general election cycle.  I haven't seen him deviate from that commitment.

Alas, I was mistaken.   (I usually am, which is why I tend to stay out of the political threads).     One of the political ads that Warren has been throwing at us for the past week has Obama in the background,  praising the shit out of her.  A quick Google search reveals this article:  The hill , which claims the ad features comments that Obama had made about her in 2010.  

I believe the ad's intent is to make people believe that Obama supports her- but that's my opinion.   Meh-

[Duchess]

 (I usually am, which is why I tend to stay out of the political threads).     

That shouldn't keep you out of the political threads. You're allowed to express your opinion and I hope you will.

[HairOfTheDog]

 (I usually am, which is why I tend to stay out of the political threads).     

That shouldn't keep you out of the political threads. You're allowed to express your opinion and I hope you will.

It was just a clarification of the facts cannongal -- no reason to shut your trap.  ')

Obama is still reportedly very popular with Democrats and a lot of Independents and some of the candidates are capitalizing upon his favorability. 

So, even though Obama's deliberately not officially supporting or endorsing any of them yet...........going by some of their political ads and stump speeches, it's easy to infer that he is.

[Duchess]

It was just a clarification of the facts cannongal -- no reason to shut your trap.  ')

Oh! I wasn't addressing that at all. I was focused on her saying something about staying out of a thread. Sometimes I worry about that. 

[HairOfTheDog]

It was just a clarification of the facts cannongal -- no reason to shut your trap.  ')

Oh! I wasn't addressing that at all. I was focused on her saying something about staying out of a thread. Sometimes I worry about that. 

I gotchya -- no worries.  

[Maggot]

[cannongal]

The democratic field is narrowing down, anyway.  Sen. Michael Bennet,  Deval Patrick,  and Andrew Yang all dropped out within the last 36 hours. 

NH gave 9 delegates to Bernie,  9 to the Butt guy, and 6 to Nanny Fine's voice doppelganger.