05-10-2012, 11:51 PM
Obama wouldn't have made the statement about supporting gay marriage until closer to the election had Biden not announced his "comfort" with it on Meet the Press, imo. It pushed Obama from his official stance that his position on the issue was "evolving" into a position where he needed to promote the image of solidarity within his administration.
In any event, I think it will have a moderate positive impact on his election. Current gallop polls show that 50% of US citizens support gay marriage, though we see clearly that getting laws passed in favor of it on a state-wide level is difficult and slow moving. Imo, Obama will gain some younger voters and may lose some black conservative voters. However, aside from the gay community itself, I don't believe that the votership considers the issue nearly as important as the economy so the impact will be minimal. JMO.
The positive impact (imo) that Obama is reaping as a result of the announcement is celebrity support and visibility. He attended a fundraiser hosted by George Clooney the same day he made his announcement; CNN reported it raked in $15 million. Ricki Martin is also getting involved; the Latino vote is big and Martin's influential with young people in that community. While I personally care less than zero about the poli-celebrities and the Hollywood factor, I do think it's an advantage in attracting young voters and raising a candidate's "cool" factor and "likeability". Many people are easily influenced, especially those who are undecided and just need to be tipped to one side, imo. The Hollywood factor did wonders for Bill Clinton and I think helped Obama get elected the first time out as well. It's an advantage.
In any event, I think it will have a moderate positive impact on his election. Current gallop polls show that 50% of US citizens support gay marriage, though we see clearly that getting laws passed in favor of it on a state-wide level is difficult and slow moving. Imo, Obama will gain some younger voters and may lose some black conservative voters. However, aside from the gay community itself, I don't believe that the votership considers the issue nearly as important as the economy so the impact will be minimal. JMO.
The positive impact (imo) that Obama is reaping as a result of the announcement is celebrity support and visibility. He attended a fundraiser hosted by George Clooney the same day he made his announcement; CNN reported it raked in $15 million. Ricki Martin is also getting involved; the Latino vote is big and Martin's influential with young people in that community. While I personally care less than zero about the poli-celebrities and the Hollywood factor, I do think it's an advantage in attracting young voters and raising a candidate's "cool" factor and "likeability". Many people are easily influenced, especially those who are undecided and just need to be tipped to one side, imo. The Hollywood factor did wonders for Bill Clinton and I think helped Obama get elected the first time out as well. It's an advantage.