2012 ELECTION

[HairOfTheDog]

I promise next time I will use the little sarcasm smiley...

The window to attack for this month has passed, as the new moon in Tehran was the 17^th. Sand storm season is still going as well... next opportunities for a new moon are Sept. 16 and October 15, so a strike before the election would likely come on these dates, + or - a few days.

There's a bad moon on the rise...

Seriously, regarding the timing, I understand that some political pundits predict Netanyahu will order a strike during the Democratic National Convention in October or that it will happen in early November. Obama and Netanyahu are not in agreement on the level of threat that Iran now represents and the US officially does not support Israeli military action at this point. Putin's been very clear that Russia strongly opposes it as well. I think Israel will hold off on taking any action this year (I hope so).

If Israel strikes right before the election anyway, it's gonna hurt their relations with the US, no matter who's elected, imo.

An Israeli strike on Iran necessarily helping Obama win the election (which almost certainly wouldn't be Netanyahu's intent given the current rift, imo). Netanyahu has failed in convincing Obama to rally behind a strike for some time, but could have better luck with a changing of the guard; possibly a motive to hold off.

All jmo, and there are a lot of them out there.