02-22-2013, 06:23 PM
Okay, I'll take the bet.
I think it's highly likely that Pistorius will make it to trial without having killed anyone.
This is really morbid, but here are my baseless odds to support our bet; between now and trial.
-No suicide or homicide attempts by Pistorius: 70%
-Suicide attempt by Pistorius, but "unsuccessful" (he fails or he's trying to garner pity): 15%
-Suicide by Pistorius, he dies by his own hand: 8%
-Pistorius assaults or kills someone else: 5%
-Pistorius gets killed by someone else: 2%
These odds might change for me as more details are revealed between now and trial (but I'm locked into our bet and will honor it - Pistorius will make it to trial without having killed anyone).
For example, I think that if the "herbal remedy/supplement" testoconpasutiun coenzyme and the syringes finish being tested by LE lab and there is evidence of performance enhancing drugs involved, the chances of him taking his own life would increase substantially; being stripped of his racing achievements would be huge on top of a murder charge. I can't find any information about that remedy anywhere and a sports scientist is quoted in link below as saying he's never heard of it before the Pistorius bail hearing (and that usually supplements are taken orally, not by syringe). Curious.
http://za.news.yahoo.com/pistorius-syrin...49396.html
I think it's highly likely that Pistorius will make it to trial without having killed anyone.
This is really morbid, but here are my baseless odds to support our bet; between now and trial.
-No suicide or homicide attempts by Pistorius: 70%
-Suicide attempt by Pistorius, but "unsuccessful" (he fails or he's trying to garner pity): 15%
-Suicide by Pistorius, he dies by his own hand: 8%
-Pistorius assaults or kills someone else: 5%
-Pistorius gets killed by someone else: 2%
These odds might change for me as more details are revealed between now and trial (but I'm locked into our bet and will honor it - Pistorius will make it to trial without having killed anyone).
For example, I think that if the "herbal remedy/supplement" testoconpasutiun coenzyme and the syringes finish being tested by LE lab and there is evidence of performance enhancing drugs involved, the chances of him taking his own life would increase substantially; being stripped of his racing achievements would be huge on top of a murder charge. I can't find any information about that remedy anywhere and a sports scientist is quoted in link below as saying he's never heard of it before the Pistorius bail hearing (and that usually supplements are taken orally, not by syringe). Curious.
http://za.news.yahoo.com/pistorius-syrin...49396.html