10-22-2014, 05:03 PM
(10-22-2014, 02:04 PM)HairOfTheDog Wrote: ^ Cheyne posted historical statistics related to known serial killers; the numbers and profiles of their confirmed and unconfirmed victims have no bearing on the validity of the known serial killer statistics posted.I would have to agree since control and fantasy are the driving forces. And really, it's all relative to the original topic in that, as time goes on they get better at what they do. The tools they use are evolving (i.e. using the internet during the stalking stage). How many currently operating in any given area at one time is a complete unknown, usually it's not until after bodies start turning up. Society as a whole is evolving into an anonymous entity. It wasn't so many years ago that everyone knew the grouchy old man who lived down the street by name as well as the kindly widdow who baked cookies every year for the paperboy and the postman. Nowdays, all but a few good neighbors are complete strangers. Serial killers are nearly impossible to identify now, give it another 20 years. How many are operating right now? Unknown. Therefore the statistics and data are variable and subject to change at any given moment that more bodies are discovered in various parts of the world. How could you possibly know that Blacks were responsible for 56.6% in the last decade when it's certain victims from that era and their killers have yet to be discovered? When you stated "A couple or few more serial killers of any certain race over any time period can change the "serial killer race percentage" in the US a lot because, fortunately, serial killers are a rare breed." you were preaching to the choir.
But, I understand now that you switched topics to predictive indexes -- thanks. I agree that historical data (confirmed or otherwise) should not be used as a sole or definitive base for attempting to identify potential suspects in an on-going investigation or attempting to profile future potential serial killers before they offend. Rather, the historical data is only one of the many tools that may be useful in those efforts.
I find the theories of MacDonald, Douglass, Ressler, et all to be interesting reads, but most of their theories in relation to predictive indexes for serial killers have never been validated by research and have been debunked by the growing compilation of verified profiles for known offenders. IMO, serial killers are as diverse as any other category of criminals when it comes to backgrounds and motives.