10-14-2016, 12:59 PM
I saw that Rasmussen had Trump up by 2 in a 4-way national race, but all the other non-outlier polls have Clinton with a strong lead. Fox's just-released poll has him down by 7 nationally.
I'm watching the swing states these days, especially Florida. Clinton's up by a couple of points in Florida now and has been consistently up by several points in other electoral-rich swing states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Ohio is neck and neck. President Obama just finished up a rally speech there. He made a point of telling people not to stay home on election day due to the false assumption that Clinton will win (or Trump will lose) without them.
Poll leads don't mean anything if people don't vote. Some pundits are theorizing that Trump's campaign's strategy now is to give up trying to expand his voter base and instead focus on suppressing the general vote. He's toast with women (even college-educated women whom he once led with and who've always been a Republican voter group) and virtually everyone but white men.
The theory is that Trump might be able to win despite having less support than Clinton if he riles up his core base (who'll get out and vote for him no matter what) and disgusts Independents and less-passionate voters with both candidates and the process/system enough that they just say 'fuck this shit' and refuse to vote. Clinton's surrogates/supporters, notably the Obamas, are working hard to counter-act that possibility and motivate high voter turn-out.
The third and final debate is on Wednesday, 19 October and there are only 24 days left til the election.
I'm watching the swing states these days, especially Florida. Clinton's up by a couple of points in Florida now and has been consistently up by several points in other electoral-rich swing states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Ohio is neck and neck. President Obama just finished up a rally speech there. He made a point of telling people not to stay home on election day due to the false assumption that Clinton will win (or Trump will lose) without them.
Poll leads don't mean anything if people don't vote. Some pundits are theorizing that Trump's campaign's strategy now is to give up trying to expand his voter base and instead focus on suppressing the general vote. He's toast with women (even college-educated women whom he once led with and who've always been a Republican voter group) and virtually everyone but white men.
The theory is that Trump might be able to win despite having less support than Clinton if he riles up his core base (who'll get out and vote for him no matter what) and disgusts Independents and less-passionate voters with both candidates and the process/system enough that they just say 'fuck this shit' and refuse to vote. Clinton's surrogates/supporters, notably the Obamas, are working hard to counter-act that possibility and motivate high voter turn-out.
The third and final debate is on Wednesday, 19 October and there are only 24 days left til the election.