10-26-2016, 11:30 AM
(10-22-2016, 12:55 PM)Maggot Wrote: At this point the down ticket is whats important to me now.
It's been interesting watching the down ticket odds the last couple of weeks.
The prediction market chances of Democrats taking the majority in the Senate has risen from about 20% to 76%. http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-congress-senate
The Democrats need to win at least 5 out of the 9 competitive races to take majority if Clinton wins the Presidency (Kaine as VP would be the tie-breaker voice).
Right now, the market favors Democrats winning senate races in Wisconsin, Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Missouri could go either way. Republican incumbents are still favored in Florida and North Carolina, but Rubio and Burr are not beating their Democratic challengers by much at this point.
The House still looks like a long shot though. Democratic challengers would need to unseat 30 Republican Representatives to take majority, the prediction market chances of which are currently under 20%.
Then again, it really surprised me when the Republicans took majority of the Senate in 2014 so I won't be too shocked if they hold onto it...