08-21-2012, 11:45 AM
Our defense posture in the region should be sending a clear message of deterrence, but Iran is run my insane radicals so all bets are off.
My guess is that if Israel is going to do anything, it will be after the election. If Romney wins, they know he will support them. If Obama wins, it's just like if they did it in the next month or two. So they'll wait.
The other part of this is the likely desire to strike when nuclear material is being gathered in one place for assembly... as it sits today they would have to hit multiple enrichment facilities. At some point Iran needs to take the centrifuged material and put it in one place to load it on a warhead. That's the time to strike all facilities at one time.
I have to imagine the satellite and on the ground intelligence is focusing on that.
My guess is that if Israel is going to do anything, it will be after the election. If Romney wins, they know he will support them. If Obama wins, it's just like if they did it in the next month or two. So they'll wait.
The other part of this is the likely desire to strike when nuclear material is being gathered in one place for assembly... as it sits today they would have to hit multiple enrichment facilities. At some point Iran needs to take the centrifuged material and put it in one place to load it on a warhead. That's the time to strike all facilities at one time.
I have to imagine the satellite and on the ground intelligence is focusing on that.