Iran deal, good deal, or bad deal?

[BlueTiki]

Then Obama and his SOS Kerry lied to the American public about their nuclear weapons program.

The polar opposite of WMDs.

[Jimbone]

Iran is committed to the destruction of Israel. Believing that they are not, or that this deal will dissuade them from their desire to do so is patently naive. That we are even negotiating with Iran is insane.

If Obama had spent as much time and energy in 2009 during Iran's Green Movement to help the opposition, maybe Iran could have changed course away from theocratic rule and government support of terrorism. That was a better chance for peace than this crap deal.

The inspection criteria in the deal are laughable at best, and in my opinion this isn't going to slow Iran down one bit. They are just going to keep doing what they are doing now, only with a lot more money at their disposal. The G5+1 got rolled, but they don't care because it's going to put money in their pockets as well.

What a shit show.

[HairOfTheDog]

I support the strategy and the deal, for all the reasons I posted upthread. I would have supported it under any administration.

I don't know if the terms could have been negotiated better, I wasn't there. But, the top leaders of six different countries were present and, based on what I've seen, I believe they worked hard to negotiate the best deal possible under the given parameters. In my opinion, the deal that was struck was way better than no deal at all.

Anyway, I think the retired top military leaders who've endorsed the deal are correct and I agree with their rationale. Ref: https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.documentclou...ls-and.pdf

Israel is one of only two countries in the Middle East sitting on a full nuclear program (one which they will not permit to be subjected to any international inspections). Israel also has the alliance of the United States and billions of dollars a year in defense funding from the U.S. And, Netanyahu no longer has to worry that Iran is gonna bomb Israel in 2 months, or a year, or any time in the immediate future -- as was his oft-stated fear.

I don't consider myself naive and I'm not against Israel or for Iran. I know a lot can change in the course of 10 years, for better or worse. I hope it's for better. But, if Israel doesn't isolate all of its allies and Iran attempts to totally destroy Israel somewhere down the line, I personally have no doubt that Iran will be destroyed quickly in the process.

[BlueTiki]

HotD . . . do you believe Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons program before this agreement was being negotiated and while under UN resolutions and sanctions?

[HairOfTheDog]

HotD . . . do you believe Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons program before this agreement was being negotiated and while under UN resolutions and sanctions?

Sorry Tiki. I didn't see your post straight off.

I believe those suspicions were likely true, yes.

I wish that the UN and P5 could have made more progress in nuclear resolutions under Ahmadinejad's regime, but I'm glad progress (in my opinion) has been made during Rouhani's. There was a new opportunity under a new leader and I think it was wise to take it.

Iran possessing nuclear weapons, in and of itself, is not as key to me as it appears to be to many others however.

I do, as a result of the deal, believe the U.S. will be in a better position to more accurately and rationally address our ally Israel's fears of being nuked by Iran. The inspection data under the deal won't be perfect or completely accurate, but certainly much better than it is today. So, U.S. leaders will be able to make informed decisions in regards to Israel's direct or indirect calls for the U.S. to support or initiate military action against Iran. That's important, but it's not the primary benefit of the deal, for me.

For me, the deal's stronger advantages lie in resetting relations in a climate where new enemies represent a growing threat to our national security. They are ideological enemies who aren't confined to country-specific or geographical boundaries; ones who are effectively employing barbaric tactics and marketing campaigns to quickly gain ground and replenish recruits.

Iran is valuable as a partner when it comes to understanding and fighting such mutual enemies in the region. Iran doesn't want the Sunni extremists to gain ground any more than we do.

Iran is also valuable as a partner when it comes to protecting our new mutual ally (Iraq) in the region.

Also, a stronger Iran helps better balance the Sunni (Saudi-led) and Shiite (Iran/Iraq only) powers in the ME -- I think that's an advantage to the rest of the world, at least in the short to mid term.

Sure, the U.S. could have kept up sanctions and hoped for the death of Iran. But, I think that would have been unrealistic and shortsighted. Plus, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany would have moved away from sanctions without us anyway; they know there are strategic and economic advantages associated with a stronger Iran.

Anyway, I don't trust Iran to always be honest and I think Iran would be fools to trust the U.S. to always be honest. But, we can make mutually-beneficial and enforceable deals/agreements with them nonetheless; happens between individuals, companies, and countries every day. If Iran fails to honor the terms of the deal, we can take action against them, military or otherwise, at that time.

I understand and accept the opinions voiced by those who don't support the deal, the strategy, or even the willingness to talk with Iran in the first place. I just disagree.

[pyropappy]

There is no strategy possible to keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons because they already have them.

Remember when we won the Cold War; the Kremlin had small tactical battlefield nukes or non-strategic nuclear weapons stationed through out their satellites. When they pulled back they recalled these weapons to Moscow; the problem, the custodians of those weapons had their funds cutoff at the same tome. The Kremlin got back more than one empty box.

My guess, this deal is black mail by Iran, lift sanctions or we start using dirty bombs.

[Maggot]

Iraq is the jewel of the middle east, Iran can taste their blood.

[username]

Then Obama and his SOS Kerry lied to the American public about their nuclear weapons program.

The polar opposite of WMDs.

As I understand it, they were within months of having nuclear weapons. If that turns out to be untrue, equivalent to Saddam and his WMD...shame on us. I don't know what to say if we twice had that poor, inaccurate, lying intelligence.

[Duchess]

I can't even adequately express how much I loathe the fact we help those terrorists in Israel. It pleases me to think they are upset about this deal. Good!

[HairOfTheDog]

I can't even adequately express how much I loathe the fact we help those terrorists in Israel. It pleases me to think they are upset about this deal. Good!

I think Obama check-mated the shit outta Netanyahu and his GOP dancers.

Netanyahu's Congressional speech against Obama and the deal failed to get him what he wanted. The GOP's embarrassing Open Letter against Obama and the deal failed to get them what they wanted.

-The majority of U.S. Jews support the Iran deal.

-The deal will provide much better intel as to Iran's nuclear activities, no doubt.

-The deal will prevent Iran from launching a nuclear attack on Israel for at least a decade (if they were even so inclined to make such a devastatingly self-destructive attempt).

-The deal will prevent Israel from initiating a military or nuclear attack on Iran (and pulling allies into it) based on fear of the nuclear unknown/unsubstantiated for at least a decade.

-Top Israeli military and defense officials support the deal and recently penned an Open Letter advising Netanyahu to accept it and move forward in resetting relations with the U.S. (and working towards the two-state Palestinian solution). Ref: http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/08/i...-deal.html

I'm convinced that if the terms of the deal are kept, it will serve the best of interests of the Israelis, the Iranians, the Americans, the Europeans, Middle Easterners...in the short and long term.

If it's broken, I believe Iran will have fucked itself beyond repair.

And, I agree with Rand Paul (and Tiki, I think, posted as much) -- it's time for the U.S. to review whether handing Israel over 3.5 billion dollars per year in Defense subsidies remains prudent.

[Maggot]

The deal will prevent Israel from initiating a military or nuclear attack on Iran (and pulling allies into it) based on fear of the nuclear unknown/unsubstantiated for at least a decade.

Did Israel agree to this tidbit?

[HairOfTheDog]

The deal will prevent Israel from initiating a military or nuclear attack on Iran (and pulling allies into it) based on fear of the nuclear unknown/unsubstantiated for at least a decade.

Did Israel agree to this tidbit?

It's what "I think", Maggot, not something I'm claiming Israel has agreed-to.

I think Israel will be prevented from launching a nuclear attack on Iran (claiming fears that Iran is on the brink of nuking them) when Israel's allies will have proof that those fears are unwarranted.

I don't think Israel would be that ignorant and self-destructive. I hope not.

[Maggot]

Israel is not like Iran and I do not see them using nuclear. Planes and drones yes. They do not constantly claim that they want to destroy Iran like their neighbors do.

[Jimbone]

Look maggot, you don't get it. Israel is the real problem in the Middle East, not any of the other countries.

Get with the program.

[Midwest Spy]

Look maggot, you don't get it. Israel is the real problem in the Middle East, not any of the other countries.

Get with the program.

No shit Sherlock.

[Duchess]

Look maggot, you don't get it. Israel is the real problem in the Middle East, not any of the other countries.

Why are you being sarcastic? Did I miss something?

[Maggot]

Look maggot, you don't get it. Israel is the real problem in the Middle East, not any of the other countries.

Get with the program.

[HairOfTheDog]

I don't think Israel is the real problem in the Middle East, Jimbone. I think there are a shitload of real problems in the Middle East.

Iran's nuclear activities not being well monitored is one real problem. Israel being in constant fear of imminent nuclear attack by Iran is another real problem. It's also a real problem for the U.S. and Israel's other allies to respond to Israel's calls for action/support without substantiation that Israel's fears of being nuked are warranted.

In my view, the deal effectively addresses and alleviates all of those problems for at least a decade.

[Maggot]

Like I said before if someone says they're gonna punch me in the nose I tend to get a bit defensive.

[HairOfTheDog]

Like I said before if someone says they're gonna punch me in the nose I tend to get a bit defensive.

I understand. I do.

Looking at it from that sort of angle...

Let's say your friend around the block has been going back and forth with Somebody for years. Somebody gets defensive and tells your friend that he is gonna punch him in the nose and knock his fucking dick in the dirt. Your friend gets defensive and threatens to have you and your colleagues come over and kick Somebody's ass into next week.

Sometime later....you and your colleagues -- armed with fully loaded Uzis -- approach Somebody. You don't trust Somebody to have Uzis because you think Somebody is dangerous to your friend and others, even though Somebody has never attacked anybody and you and your friend have attacked lots of people.

Somebody, who you know has no access to any working guns but is trying to build Uzis in his garage, agrees to stop building and let you inspect his garage regularly for 10 years. In exchange, you will give Somebody a job and some other compensation. As an added bonus, Somebody also happens to hate the convicted child molester and his like-inclined friends down the street as much as you do; so Somebody agrees to help you keep the chesters away from kids in the area.

The threat to your friend has been greatly minimized, but he's pissed. He would rather you have kicked Somebody's ass on his behalf and resents that, while you don't like or trust Somebody very much, you're trying a diplomatic arrangement which keeps everybody safer.