TAX REFORM

[Maggot]

Is that Kim yung Huh?

[BigMark]

[HairOfTheDog]

This morning I spent a good hour searching for credible economic analysis and theories to support Trump's and the GOP's contention that the forthcoming tax cuts will pay for themselves and that they focus on benefiting lower and middle income citizens. I really wanted to find something.

I could not find anything. Every forecast and analysis from every source shows these tax cuts benefiting the wealthy permanently and costing the lower and middle classes after a few years to pay for those benefits to the wealthy.

Even the most optimistic estimate of economic stimulus and job growth resulting from the tax cuts doesn't even come close to making up for the lost governmental revenue.

[HairOfTheDog]

The letter Paul Ryan held up when the Senate bill was passed, claiming it was an endorsement from 100 economists supporting the plan, is really just a letter saying that lowering the corporate tax rate will increase jobs and investment in the U.S. Ignoring the question of credibility surrounding some of those who signed the letter..................it does not state that lowering personal income tax temporarily + repealing the estate tax on the extremely wealthy + reducing the corporate tax rate will generate enough growth revenue to cover the cost of the tax cuts. It is thus not an endorsement of the legislation.

Is it possible that all the economists and experts are wrong and Trump and the GOP are right? Yeah, anything is possible with variable forecasting. But, it is not realistic at all based on history and responsible analysis. It's wishful thinking or a false promise.

The only realistic way to reduce the risk of a short term economic (and market) boom followed by real pain for everyone but the rich shortly down the road........ is to cut governmental spending as much or more as the cut in tax revenue. The GOP won't look at cutting military spending, they never do. What they will do, in my opinion, is try to cut spending in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

[HairOfTheDog]

So, I'm hoping the Democrats unite quickly and put together a solid, understandable, and honest message about what's really happening here and hammer it consistently leading up to the 2018 midterm elections.

This is the least popular tax cut proposal in history........for a very good reason. I hope Democrats turn up in droves to vote next year and true fiscal conservatives stay home in protest or vote against congresspersons who supported the legislation.

[Duchess]

Thank you for taking the time to do that, HotD. I think you're unbiased and fair.

[Donovan]

Of course I will survive, I'm already poor. I'm used to it. I have survival skills. The country itself, however, is in real trouble. When the leadership is corrupt, the financiers are regulating themselves, and most of the so-called "earmarks of success" are from corporate and financial institutions who depend on continued consumer input, while government revenue remains stagnant or by other means gets sharply cut for the wealthiest citizens, it's a recipe for disaster. See Argentina and Greece among others.

We have systematically dismantled our methods of fiscal oversight, alienated most of our allies and potential and existing lenders, and arranged our own government in such a way that destroys the working class on which everything depends.

There is no fix for this. The most likely outcome for the inevitable collapse is rioting, cessation of basic infrastructure maintenance, massive inflation, devaluation of our dollar, default on our deficit and subsequent lowering of our credit as a nation. Our economy will shrink in a spasm by maybe up to a fifth of itself which will in turn cause unemployment to skyrocket and crime along with it. May even see a second civil conflict as more prosperous parts of the country attempt to untether themselves. The West coast certainly could, as well as the eastern Seaboard. At the very least we will see severe austerity measures and eventually some sort of economy-boosting war. And many will die. Many.

These are not fantasies, they are likelihoods based on current conditions and historical precedent in similar situation s throughout the industrial age.

[Duchess]

He keeps talking about how wonderful everything is, if it's so wonderful why change anything? Serious question.

[HairOfTheDog]

I called Darell Issa's office last Friday and faxed his office on Monday.

While I haven't lived in So Cal for 20 years, most of my family still does and I want Republican California Representatives to be really fucking clear about the FACT that their asses are on the line.

They're supposed to represent the best interests of their constituents, not the best interests of political donors and Trump heirs.

Californians and New Yorkers and a few other 'blue state' residents pay a whole lot more into the fed tax pool than other states. And, we reap a whole lot less in fed benefits. I've never minded that in the past, even though it hurts my bottom line. It was good for Americans on the whole and that was cool by me.

Now, however, it's clear that the current administration has no qualms about sticking it to the residents of those blue/democratic majority states because we're not part of the President's core base. Big mistake. We gonna vote Representatives who enable that scam out, trust me.

There is no way that I or anyone I know is going to shut up, pay our asses off in taxes, and struggle to stay put so that Ivanka, Donny Junior, the other Trump son, corporate giants, and billionaire GOP donors can get even richer at the expense of the rest of Americans.

[HairOfTheDog]

On a brighter note..........I was glad to see today that the House/Senate tax reform reconciliation negotiations led to rejecting the full repeal of State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions.

The (predictable) compromise of $10,000 deductible is much less painful for the millions of us already contributing more than our share, but still doesn't even cover my property taxes.

This "tax reform proposal" has less than 30% public support. Never before has a promise of reduced taxes been so unpopular. Why? Because never before has our government so blatantly regarded Americans as idiots who can't do basic research and math.

Fortunately, only about 30% of population is that idiotic. Unfortunately, I won't be surprised if this so-called 'tax reform' bill is passed within the next month just so the Republican party can say that Trump achieved a legislative campaign promise in his first year.

I hope this bill fails because it's just wrong.

[Duchess]

I hope this bill fails because it's just wrong.

When faced with cameras, some of those trying to push it are outright lying about it or they are literally running from the camera.

Goddamn, I can hardly wait to vote out the majority. They know it's coming too.

[Maggot]

It will not fail.

[HairOfTheDog]

It will not fail.

Yeah.........as we've stated repeatedly, we know it's very likely to pass the congressional vote (for all the wrong reasons, in my opinion).

If it passes the vote, as expected, and does not deliver on its unsubstantiated claims of creating enough job, wage, and consumer spending growth to cover the resultant debt/deficit...... it will be a fail. It will have meant long term gain for the wealthy, long term loss for everyone else, and further erosion of the middle class by having increased income inequality.

I hope the bill fails to pass congress, but expect that it will pass. If it does pass the vote, I hope it succeeds in delivering on its promises. However, I don't expect that it will.

[Duchess]

The only reason it's going to pass is because those people are dying, DYING to be able to say they've accomplished something this year. This isn't a good bill, it's not a bill to be proud of it, it's not a piece of legislation that helps average Americans. I haven't read the entire thing but if someone has and they've seen where it's going to help anyone but the top 1%, point it out to me. Thanks!

[BigMark]

The elimination of the AMT for my tax bracket will be huge for me and many others.

[HairOfTheDog]

The elimination of the AMT for my tax bracket will be huge for me and many others.

Yeah, there are some things I really like about the new tax legislation, especially the consolidated House/Senate final draft.

I'm glad that the elimination of the AMT helps you and others.

And, I'm glad that most Americans, including the wealthy (who I have nothing at all against) will see more in take-home pay for several years.

The reason I oppose this tax reform legislation is because it feels like a short term bribe to the middle and lower income brackets in order to get fucked in the ass in a few years.

-Corporate income tax significantly decreased PERMANENTLY.
-Estate Tax capital gains for wealthy heirs cut in half PERMANENTLY.
----But, individual income tax moderately decreased TEMPORARILY (except for the top income brackets where it's PERMANENT), and then increased to pay for the corporate and billionaire individuals' gain. Not cool.

-State and Local Tax deductions for residents of states already paying more than their fair share (CA, NJ, FL, etc) to the fed significantly reduced or eliminated PERMANENTLY. So, we're going to keep paying more to our state government than everyone else and, as a result of this legislation,even more to the fed too.

In my case, and many others, it's going to cost me way more net than I save with the reduced corp rate for my biz and the doubled standard deduction for myself as an individual. That's gonna really sting.

Now, if it was going to help people across the country get better/some health care, have more educational opportunities, reduce poverty........I'd try to find a way to suck it up for the greater good. If that wasn't possible, I'd just bail the state (a distinct possibility).

However, I'm not a dipshit (generally), so I'm not cool with getting fucked in the ass so billionaire corporations and heirs get even richer while I, my employees, and all but the already-wealthiest entities pay for it. That's wrong and it's playing Americans for suckers.

[HairOfTheDog]

Paul Ryan has already started talking about Welfare/Entitlement reform. No surprise to me. That's what he and most establishment Republicans have really wanted for at least a decade. This new tax reform legislation will be the self-created catalyst to pursue that goal.

Ryan and company (who objected to deficit/debt like a motherfucker before now) will claim it's necessary to take from the most in-need to pay for the hugely reduced government revenue resulting from this pro-billionaire tax reform legislation. Not cool.

Any government-funded program can and should be looked at in order to increase efficiency and reduce cost, in my opinion. That includes entitlement and military/defense spending. But, that's not what's happening in good faith here.

I think some Republican elected officials are shocked to find that so many Americans from all backgrounds and income brackets are informed and stand in opposition to this "Christmas present from Trump and the GOP" and what very likely comes next.

Anyway, I'm convinced that a short-term low/middle income bribe followed by fleecing average and poorest Americans to pay for perks to political donors and billionaires ain't gonna fly in the court of public opinion. It's not gonna happen without huge consequences to the GOP.

A lot of Republicans are seeing the writing on the wall now, in my opinion. They're preparing to get what they can with an expectation of being out of office in 2019.

Having said all of that, if against all logic and financial likelihood this tax reform plan really does spur enough economic growth to pay for itself (and thus individual income tax reductions become permanent and assistance for the truly needy is not cut)...........I'll be raising my pom-poms and cheering Trump, Ryan, and the GOP.

[BigMark]

[Duchess]

Having Liberal values is waaaay better than professing to have (nonexistent) Republican values. If you disagree, go ahead and name some Republican values. Thanks!

[Tammy75]

Having Liberal values is waaaay better than professing to have (nonexistent) Republican values. If you disagree, go ahead and name some Republican values. Thanks!