MID-TERM ELECTIONS

[HairOfTheDog]

So, here are the results of the midterms as of 11 /26 p.m.

HOUSE:
Utah Republican House incumbent Mia Love conceded today.  She was defeated by Ben McAdams.  It was a tight hard-fought battle.  

There are still three races pending final vote counts.

Democrats have gained a net 38 seats.  Democrats = 233 seats, Republicans = 199 seats.

SENATE:
There's still one race pending.  Democrat Mike Epsy is  the underdog in his battle to defeat Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi special election tomorrow.  She's a royal dipshit, in my opinion.  I hope he manages an upset.

Republicans have gained a net 2 seats.  Republicans = 52 seats, Democrats = 47 seats.  

GOVERNORS:
Democrats gained a net  7 governors. Republican governors = 27, Democrat governors = 23.

[Fry Guy]

The midterm vote counts are almost all finalized and certified now.  I did not expect the Dems to take the Senate.  The map was against them; elections were largely in Trump country.  

Trump's campaign endorsements and rhetoric were effective in helping the Republicans keep the Senate by a very small margin.  The President deserves credit for that, in my opinion.  And, maintaining control of the Senate is a big deal, primarily when it comes to pushing religious/conservative judges into long-term and lifetime positions.  

But, Trump had the exact opposite effect, on a much broader scale, when it comes to the House.  The Dems wiped the floor with Republicans.  

Democrats picked up large numbers of women, Independents, millenials, and suburban voters as compared to 2016.; they way exceeded my expectations.   

(continued)

9,000,000 more citizens voted for Democrats over Republicans in the 2018 midterms. That's historically huge, a record.

By comparison.........Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the 2016 popular vote by only ¹⁄₃ that amount and 35 states in the union have populations less than 9,000,000.

It's a much bigger vote lead than the Republicans enjoyed when the Tea Party protests helped the Republicans take control back in 2010.

I really don't care how biased people choose to label or position the results, "blue wave", "blue puddle", "split verdict".......whatever. Facts are facts and numbers aren't subjective. The Dems needed 23 seats to take control of the House. They will have taken between 38 and 40 when all is said and done, plus they picked up 7 governorships and flipped two senate seats.

Anyway, as an Independent who's currently way more aligned with Democratic priorities and values than with Republicans (it's been the other way around in the past), I think it's a very good thing for the country and I'm looking forward to more balance and significant corrections in 2019 and 2020.

The (Trump) Republicans lost me altogether when they cut government revenue tremendously by offering tax cuts to corporations and certain individuals while simultaneously increasing government spending significantly, thus driving the national deficit through the roof -- short-term and politically/personally self-serving idiocy that only leads to mid and long-term economic pain.

It is historically true that in midterms the incoming President's party loses both the house and Senate
However, in this term, the President had 40+ retirements which would make things incredibly harder still.
A "blue wave" was EXPECTED.
None of this has a thing to do with Trumpism and it would be stupid to infer otherwise.
But those historically it was PROBABLE that the Republicans would lose both house and Senate to a blue wave. It DIDN'T happen. The house was lost and Senate kept to a mixed results.
There are investigations occurring to voting impropriety in Arizona, Florida and Michigan.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/p.../95363314/

More votes than voters? In Democrat urban Michigan? Colour me aghast. Lots more Democrat votes you say? I think there is every chance we can find another car load of ballots around Broward County. They of course were NOT blank ballots that were filled in POST-election. There was nothing untoward....quick shut down the airport!

Year President Party House Senate Total
1938 Franklin D. Roosevelt D -71 -6 -77
1946 Harry S. Truman D -45 -12 -57
1958 Dwight D. Eisenhower R -48 -13 -61
1962 John F. Kennedy D -4 +3 -1
1966 Lyndon B. Johnson D -47 -4 -51
1970 Richard Nixon D -12 +2 -10
1974 Gerald R. Ford D -48 -5 -63
1978 Jimmy Carter D -15 -3 -18
1982 Ronald Reagan R -26 +1 -25
1990 George Bush R -8 -1 -9
1994 William J. Clinton D -52 -8 -60
2002 George W. Bush R +8 +2 +10
2010 Barack Obama D -63 -6 -69

[Duchess]

Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi special election tomorrow.  She's a royal dipshit, in my opinion.  I hope he manages an upset.

That toothless old bat is a POS and Mississippi has got to be the crappiest state in the country to elect her for any goddamn thing.

[HairOfTheDog]

Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith in the Mississippi special election tomorrow.  She's a royal dipshit, in my opinion.  I hope he manages an upset.

That toothless old bat is a POS and Mississippi has got to be the crappiest state in the country to elect her for any goddamn thing.

She's a piece of work in my opinion too.  Unsurprisingly, she won the race tonight anyway. 

Espy beat her in suburban and diverse districts.  But, Hyde-Smith posted much higher vote counts in white rural districts.

Hyde-Smith's victory gives the Republicans a net gain of 3 Senate seats.

The senatorial election map for 2020 is way more diverse than this year's elections.  That should worry Republicans.

As for the House, were it not for 8 years of re-districting/gerrymandering by the Republican-controlled Congress, the Republicans would have lost even more than 38 - 40 seats, way more.

[HairOfTheDog]

As mentioned/posted many times previously, the President's party typically loses House seats in the midterms. Historically, that was due to the fact that the party ruling the White House wasn't as motivated as the opposition + midterm voter turn-out is low.

Trump and company undoubtedly (in my opinion) understood that historical trend and tried to buck it by riling up Republicans and pushing them to the polls.

I think Trump succeeded in prompting greater than usual midterm voter turn-out from the President's party. However, the same Presidential rhetoric also motivated more Independents, swing voters, and disaffected Republicans to get out and vote against the President and the Republican party.

That helped the Democrats to realize their highest voter turn out ever, flip a historically high number of seats from red to blue, and win the midterm popular vote by a higher number/percentage than any time in our country's history.

Anyway, I hope the House Dems succeed in their attempts to drive and pass legislation that makes it illegall for any party to engage in redistricting/gerrymandering (which has been practiced by both parties when they controlled the Congress) and illegal to engage in voter suppression activities (a Republican-specific strategy).

[BigMark]

Trump is a major douche and I can understand if you don't like his policies how entirely deranged he would make you.

[Duchess]

I hardly consider it deranged to oppose him both as a president and as a human being.

[HairOfTheDog]

Trump is a major douche and I can understand if you don't like his policies how entirely deranged he would make you.

Well Bigs, whether Trump is a douche or not is wholly irrelevant when it comes to considering facts and stats/results objectively.  He could be the most honest and altruistic angel on earth.............and the facts and stats/results wouldn't change.

What's deranged is denying facts and stats/results because they don't align with one's preferences, worships, and loyalties.  

Trump's campaign rallies and rhetoric quite likely kept the Senate under Republican control and gained the Republicans a couple of Senate seats (primarily rural, white, non-college districts).  As I said, that's a win for Trump and company.

In the process of doing so, Trump helped the Democrats realize a record number of votes and pick up a whole lot of seats in previously Republican-held House districts ( ie more diverse, college-educated, female and suburban); districts wherein in the record number of midterm voters strongly opposed Trump's midterm rally rhetoric and policy proposals.

That's the reality of what happened as evidenced by the vote count breakdown. Denying verifiable reality is what's 'deranged', dude.

[BigMark]

(primarily rural, white, non-college districts) 

Yes, that is completely awesome to get people who wave at each other going down the road, who look after your unlocked house and are the salt of the earth, AWESOME!

[HairOfTheDog]

(primarily rural, white, non-college districts) 

Yes, that is completely awesome to get people who wave at each other going down the road, who look after your unlocked house and are the salt of the earth, AWESOME!

   What?  How in the hell does that relate to the midterm vote breakdown?

I live next door to an Italian American couple and across the street from a Mexican American man and his two kids.  We all watch out for each other --  it has nothing to do with race or ethnicity.

I don't have a single thing against white, rural, non college-educated American citizens in general. Just like I don't have a single thing against non-white, urban, college-educated Americans or any other demographic.

On an ideological individual / group level ............I don't respect racists, misogynists, violent/sex criminals, religious zealots or any other group that deems themselves entitled and/or superior to others. Those assholes are present in every single demographic.

I simply communicated the demographic make up of the bulk of Republican support in the 2018 midterms. Why on earth does that reality make you feel defensive Biggie?

[BigMark]

You give me the vapors.

[HairOfTheDog]

I'd rub your belly if it would help.

But, that only offers immediate relief and exacerbates the vapors in the long-term.

The only cure is one month without sex, alcohol, gambling, weed, and smart-assery.

You're screwed Biggie. ')

[BigMark]

I could do the no weed part, the rest i'm doomed.

[Duchess]

It's beginning to look like there was some fuckery going down in North Carolina in regards to voting. Apparently there is some evidence that republicans may have stole a Congressional seat by destroying, falsifying and manipulating absentee ballots.

[Fry Guy]

Trump is a major douche and I can understand if you don't like his policies how entirely deranged he would make you.

Well Bigs, whether Trump is a douche or not is wholly irrelevant when it comes to considering facts and stats/results objectively.  He could be the most honest and altruistic angel on earth.............and the facts and stats/results wouldn't change.

What's deranged is denying facts and stats/results because they don't align with one's preferences, worships, and loyalties.  

Trump's campaign rallies and rhetoric quite likely kept the Senate under Republican control and gained the Republicans a couple of Senate seats (primarily rural, white, non-college districts).  As I said, that's a win for Trump and company.

In the process of doing so, Trump helped the Democrats realize a record number of votes and pick up a whole lot of seats in previously Republican-held House districts ( ie more diverse, college-educated, female and suburban); districts wherein in the record number of midterm voters strongly opposed Trump's midterm rally rhetoric and policy proposals.

That's the reality of what happened as evidenced by the vote count breakdown. Denying verifiable reality is what's 'deranged', dude.

Are these stats true or false and what "general" pattern do they show?

Year President Party House Senate Total
1938 Franklin D. Roosevelt D -71 -6 -77
1946 Harry S. Truman D -45 -12 -57
1958 Dwight D. Eisenhower R -48 -13 -61
1962 John F. Kennedy D -4 +3 -1
1966 Lyndon B. Johnson D -47 -4 -51
1970 Richard Nixon D -12 +2 -10
1974 Gerald R. Ford D -48 -5 -63
1978 Jimmy Carter D -15 -3 -18
1982 Ronald Reagan R -26 +1 -25
1990 George Bush R -8 -1 -9
1994 William J. Clinton D -52 -8 -60
2002 George W. Bush R +8 +2 +10
2010 Barack Obama D -63 -6 -69

Now if the general pattern is that the incoming government will lose both Senate and House in their first midterm then that HAS to be the DEFAULT expectation. IF a incoming party has 40+ resignations then the EXPECTATION is that they will lose both teh House and Senate and in REALLY REALLY historic level.

That did not happen and trying to spin this as evidence of a poor performance is dishonest. It is devoid of facts and stats and such.

It's beginning to look like there was some fuckery going down in North Carolina in regards to voting. Apparently there is some evidence that republicans may have stole a Congressional seat by destroying, falsifying and manipulating absentee ballots.

There is definitely fuckery that went on in Florida by the Democrats, Georgia, Arizona and the Detroit ballots.

[Maggot]

All politicians eat from the same trough Dems & Pubs. there are red tides and blue tides.  

[Duchess]

In Wisconsin, the outgoing Republican party has passed a sweeping measure taking power away from the incoming Democratic governor & AG. How 'bout that shit. Those power hungry bastards were voted out because the people of Wisconsin didn't want them.

...and then there's that bullshit down in North Carolina. Fuckin' republicans.

[Fry Guy]

In Wisconsin, the outgoing Republican party has passed a sweeping measure taking power away from the incoming Democratic governor & AG. How 'bout that shit. Those power hungry bastards were voted out because the people of Wisconsin didn't want them.

...and then there's that bullshit down in North Carolina. Fuckin' republicans.

....and the bullshit in California, Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan....fucking Democrats

[Duchess]

....and the bullshit in California, Florida, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan....fucking Democrats

The bullshit you refer to is only going on in your own mind.

[Fry Guy]

Sure Duchess. I am sure that all of this is in my mind.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/m.../95570866/

More votes than voters

https://politicalwire.com/2018/11/10/mor...rd-county/

http://www.americanjournalreview.com/bre...fs-office/

https://www.lauraloomer.us/blog/exclusiv...le-airport

So this was not happening in Broward County?

https://recentlyheard.com/2018/12/03/ele...g-favored/

This did not happen in California?

Sure its all in my mind. In the same way your projection of Trump as the ultimate evil is all in your mind.