TURMOIL IN THE UKRAINE / RUSSIA AGGRESSION

[HairOfTheDog]

I think Putin makes political decisions based on emotion, ego, and unrealistic dreams too often. He went from publicly stating that Russia wouldn't support an uprising in Ukraine to diving right in and stoking Crimea secession in like a week.

Does Putin want to rebuild the Russian empire of the Soviet Union days? I think so. I think it's his dream to be the architect of that rebuilding project whilst being seen as a hero to "his" people and a defiant badass who puts the West in its place to others in the East. I don't think he's gonna succeed in creating himself such a legacy unless he allows himself to be checked by advisers, he's too reckless on his own. ALL JMO.

I recreated and modified a map that pictorially reflects the cultural/linguistic divide in the Ukraine and how Putin's influence in the country was threatened when the pro-Russian Ukranian leader was ousted last month.



Though they've reportedly felt neglected and unheard by NATO for years in regards to the perceived threat of Russian hopes to take over in the region, the Baltics and Poland are now receiving the NATO military support they'd been requesting for a decade. The US sent six warplanes to Lithuania on Thursday and ten are en-route to Poland.

The impacts of the conflict within the Ukraine, and between the Ukraine and Russia, have potentially far-reaching impacts on a lot of people. It can still be de-escalated, IMO. Odd that we're once again in a situation where it seems the fate of many rests on the shoulders of one man.

Map Ref: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/...rimea.html

[Duchess]

I'm concerned that Putin would do anything to avoid it being seen as him being taken down a notch by the US. I've read he doesn't particularly like Obama and holds him low regard, so bending to him will be a very difficult, if not impossible, thing to do. I don't normally feel anxious when this kind of thing goes on but I do this time.

[kevvome]

Putin is a cunt, nobody can deny that, not even Putin.
Y'know why I think he is so fucking cocksure of himself? Because he has fucking China behind him. There may well be a hidden agenda here. Who is to say I am wrong if I say that both Russia and China have had secret talks and have decided to see how far they can push the West? I wouldn't trust the Chinese in any way shape or form, that equally applies to Russia too. Putin is mentally unbalanced and is a danger to Western Europe and America. His fucking country could not and would not win against W, Europe and the States, but with China on his side it would be a different ball game.
Have a good look at Putin. He looks like a psycho on home leave from the hospital.

[kevvome]

I'm concerned that Putin would do anything to avoid it being seen as him being taken down a notch by the US. I've read he doesn't particularly like Obama and holds him low regard, so bending to him will be a very difficult, if not impossible, thing to do. I don't normally feel anxious when this kind of thing goes on but I do this time.

Ditto Duchess.

[HairOfTheDog]

It would shock me if China was interested in geographical and military take overs with anyone, including Putin.

IMO, China wants to dominate the world economically. They've had plans to that end since before the collapse of the wall and I think they're making steady progress towards achieving their goals.

China is, as is their M.O., refraining from any meaningful comment on the Ukranian conflict.

China doesn't want to feel powerless against Western countries and alliances and their brand of "democracy" is still very young, same for Russia. I can see why they keep close ties with Russia (regardless of who's in charge of the country), but don't think China's goals converge with those of Putin.

Again, just my personal opinion.

[HairOfTheDog]

Full Speed Ahead...


Recent anti-Russia protest

Snip:
"This is our land," (Ukranian Prime Minister) Arseniy Yatsenyuk told a crowd gathered at the Kiev statue to writer and nationalist Taras Shevchenko. "Our fathers and grandfathers have spilled their blood for this land. And we won't budge a single centimeter from Ukrainian land. Let Russia and its president know this."

"We're one country, one family and we're here together with our kobzar (bard) Taras," said acting President Oleksandr Turchynov.

Later Sunday, following an extraordinary meeting of the Ukrainian government, Yatsenyuk announced he would be flying this week to the United States for high-level talks on "resolution of the situation in Ukraine," the Interfax news agency reported.

Meanwhile, this weekend, Russia reinforced its armed presence on the peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin's foreign minister ruled out any dialogue with Ukraine's new authorities, whom he dismissed as the puppets of extremists.

The regional parliament in Crimea has set a March 16 referendum on leaving Ukraine to join Russia. Senior lawmakers in Moscow have said they would support the move, ignoring sanctions threats and warnings from President Barack Obama that the vote would violate international law.

In Simferopol, the Crimean capital, a crowd of more than 4,000 people turned out Sunday to endorse unification with Russia. On Lenin Square, a naval band played World War II ditties as old women sang along, and dozens of tricolor Russian flags fluttered in the cold wind.


Recent pro-Russia unification crowd

"Russians are our brothers," Crimean Parliament speaker Vladimir Konstantinov said. He asked the crowd how it would vote in the referendum a week hence. "Russia! Russia!" came the loud answer. "We are going back home to the Motherland," said Konstantinov.

Not everyone agrees. "We will not allow a foreign boot that wants to stand on the heads of our children," one of the speakers, Alla Petrova, said. "The people are not scared. We are not scared to come out here and speak." Some pro-Russians drove by, shouting "Moscow, Moscow!" from their cars, but there was no trouble.

Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague, who appeared on the BBC Sunday morning, described Russia's entering Crimea as a "big miscalculation." He also said the March 16 referendum was happening "ridiculously quickly." Hague added, "The world will not be able to regard that as free or fair."

Ref: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/09...l#liveblog

[kevvome]

It would shock me if China was interested in geographical and military take overs with anyone, including Putin.

IMO, China wants to dominate the world economically. They've had plans to that end since before the collapse of the wall and I think they're making steady progress towards achieving their goals.

China is, as is their M.O., refraining from any meaningful comment on the Ukranian conflict.

China doesn't want to feel powerless against Western countries and alliances and their brand of "democracy" is still very young, same for Russia. I can see why they keep close ties with Russia (regardless of who's in charge of the country), but don't think China's goals converge with those of Putin.

Again, just my personal opinion.

Yeah sure, I could be wrong. But why I say I could be right is because these fuckers will never let us know what they are thinking or doing. I don't trust them, I never will.

[HairOfTheDog]

Sunday, Bloody Sunday?

So, count down to the Crimea vote -- it's scheduled for Sunday, March 16^th.

The largely Russian population there will vote on whether to remain part of the Ukraine under its government, or to secede from the Ukraine and become an independent region (and then it can apply to become part of Russia; Putin has made it abundantly clear that he's all for taking control of Crimea).

Despite threats of sanctions and asset-freezing from Europe and the US -- and pleas to Putin to engage in conflict resolution talks with global leaders -- Russia is moving full speed ahead and essentially flipping its critics the bird.

Here's what's going down there now in prep for Sunday's vote:

Russia announced on Thursday it had started military exercises near the border with Ukraine in what is likely to be seen as a show of force in the standoff with Kiev and the West over Crimea.

Separately, the ministry said Russia had sent six Su-27 jet fighters and three military transport planes to ally Belarus, responding to a request prompted by joint U.S.-Polish exercises in NATO nation Poland, Interfax reported.

The Defence Ministry confirmed exercises had begun in the Southern Military District near the Ukrainian border, involving 8,500 artillery men. The exercise includes a large number of artillery and Grad (Hail), Hurricane and Tornado multiple-rocket launchers, the Defence Ministry said in a statement on its website.

Also involved are Howitzers, Nona self-propelled artillery and Rapier anti-tank guns, and the aim is to improve cooperation with motorised infantry, tank, air-assault and marine units.

Ref: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/13...57225.html
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If the majority of the people in Crimea vote to secede (and it sure seems to be the most likely outcome based on media reports), really hoping it doesn't incite a civil war between western and eastern Ukraine -- with Russia supplying the military for the east and NATO countries being driven to support the western Ukraine.

Would be nice to read in tomorrow morning's news that Putin has agreed to talk and has encouraged the Crimea Parliament to call off the vote. Possible, but highly unlikely - IMO.

[Duchess]

I've been waiting for her to speak up. By many accounts she is one of very few people that Putin trusts & respects -

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday that Russia risks "massive" political and economic consequences if Moscow does not enter into "negotiations that achieve results" over the situation in Ukraine.

In an address to Parliament, Merkel told lawmakers the only way out of the crisis is through diplomacy and assured them that "the use of the military is no option."

But, she said, the European Union and other western nations would soon freeze bank accounts and implement travel restrictions if Russia refused to enter "negotiations that achieve results and aren't just a play for time."

If Moscow does not begin to "deescalate" the situation then, Merkel said the 28 European Union nations, the United States and other trans-Atlantic partners were prepared to take even stronger measures that would hit Russia economically.

"If Russia continues on its course of the past weeks that will not only be a great catastrophe for Ukraine..." Merkel said in the nationally televised address. "It will cause massive damage to Russia, both economically and politically."

She said Russia's decision to deploy troops into Ukraine's strategic Crimean Peninsula was a clear breach of international law, and that Moscow was bullying its weaker neighbor with methods reminiscent of 19^th century European power politics.

Story

[Midwest Spy]

It's a breath of fresh air to hear another Western leader do the public speaking, instead of U.S. (and I mean US) always doing it.

[HairOfTheDog]

This is such a bad move by Putin.

Russia wants to restore its super power status and Putin, in particular, laments the messy collapse of the Soviet Union. I get that.

But Russia's quick intervention and escalation of the conflict between Crimea and Kiev seems very non-strategic to me -- like an emotional and irrational opportunistic heels-dig. Any positive global nods he got for de-escalating Western tensions with Syria and for hosting the Olympics has been undone as a result, IMO. If he doesn't undig his heels on this one, I think he's all but done in terms of maintaining any legitimacy as a world leader.

Ukraine booted their elected leader for backing off a planed EU agreement and being a Putin-puppet, essentially. Putin lost control and he's pissed. IMO, the way he's handling it paints him as a control-freak hypocritical fool, on the world stage. He's not defending the people of Crimea from persecution or discrimination within the Ukraine -- he's exploiting them in an ill-advised power play, IMO.

China's not gonna fuck themselves over politically and economically, nor go against their non-intervention philosophy, by backing Russia and Putin on this one. The only leader that I've seen support Putin's actions and stance in the Ukranian conflict is Syria's Assad; a meaningless (if not disadvantageous) endorsement at this time.

Anyway, hoping Putin heeds Merkel's warnings and offers to back off doing exactly what it is that Russia and China ally against the West over -- intervening in foreign conflicts. It's in everybody's best interest (especially Putin's) for him to engage in attempts for a diplomatic solution.

[HairOfTheDog]

CORRECTION: Apologies; I was mistaken in what the referendum voting options will be for the people of Crimea on Sunday.

They won't actually have a choice to remain part of the Ukraine. Ballot papers (as per the Crimean parliament website) will ask two questions, both in Russian.

1. "Are you in favour of the reunification of Crimea with Russia as a part of the Russian Federation?"

2. Are you in favour of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?"

Even though the second question seems to offer an option to stay with Crimea, it doesn’t.

The 1992 constitution came in right after Ukraine’s independence from the USSR and gave Crimea the option to decide which path to choose including joining Russia. This constitution was rejected and replaced by another one by the Ukrainians in 1995.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news...GZo4C.dpuf

[HairOfTheDog]

An estimated 50,000 Russians participated in a "March of Peace" in Moscow today; protesting Russia's intervention in the Ukraine and Putin's "cold-war" style policies.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-moscow-p...37662.html

IMO, the best possible outcome for everyone, including Putin, tomorrow is for Crimeans to vote in favor of Option (2). That would mean Crimea would be independent again -- not governed by the Ukraine any longer, nor by Russia.

Even though Crimea's Parliament appears to have already signed on the dotted line to join Russia (whether the vote comes back in favor of Option 1 or Option 2), under the second option, Putin could wait a bit, PR the shit outta the situation using Crimea's right to democratically choose its own future as his platform, and try to bring Crimea into the Russian Federation after a cooling down period.

If the vote instead comes back in favor of becoming part of the Russian Federation under what's been presented as Putin strong-arming the region and its people, I'm afraid it's gonna get real crazy real fast and have western leaders and NATO allies in Eastern Europe scrambling for what to do next. This potential annexation has proceeded at such rapid speed.

Really hoping this can all be handled without military action.

[HairOfTheDog]

Bombshell Tonight: Crimeans vote 95% to join the Russian Federation.

No surprise, but should be an interesting couple of weeks in terms of EU and NATO meetings and announcements (and how things play out between west and east Ukraine).

John McCain visited the Ukraine last week and said that the whole referendum voting process was bogus and Russian unification was a done deal in advance.

He's in-line with the majority of US politicians from both parties in supporting economic sanctions against Russia and denouncing Putin. He told Face the Nation: "Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country. It's kleptocracy, it's corruption, it's a nation that's really only dependent upon oil and gas for their economy."

Well, at least the Republicans and Democrats seem to have found common ground on something.

[HairOfTheDog]

Putin Addresses the West



Snip:
As you know, the last few weeks have been kind of crazy around here. Last month, protests in Ukraine ousted the country’s Kremlin-allied president and ignited a wave of Ukrainian nationalism that threatened to destabilize Russia’s economic and military interests in the region. Of course, I couldn’t simply stand by and let that happen, so I intervened and ordered a forceful takeover of the strategically important peninsula of Crimea—a territory with historical ties to Russia that our nation had long desired. It’s certainly no easy task to forcefully annex an entire province against another country’s will, so I just wanted to thank you—the government of the United States, the nations of western Europe, and really the entire world population as a whole—for being super cool about all of this. Seriously, you guys have been amazing. All of you. I really appreciate it.

To be honest, I was really dreading a whole big fight over this thing. When you first condemned the seizure of Crimea as patently illegal and in breach of the Ukrainian constitution—which it absolutely was, by the way—I feared for the worst. But then everybody stopped short of doing anything to actually prevent what was essentially a state-sponsored landgrab, and I just thought, “Wow, these guys are a pretty laid-back and easygoing bunch!” It really was a huge load off when you let everything slide like that.

Believe me, I know it must have been hard to stand idly by and do nothing as a foreign military invaded one of your allies, or just sit back and watch while we set up a complete farce of a referendum—a referendum supervised by heavily armed members of the Russian military, mind you—and used it as grounds for backdoor annexation. It also couldn’t have been easy to keep your cool when we sent commandos to raid the Ukrainian naval headquarters in Crimea. But you didn’t really make much of a fuss over any of it, and I couldn’t be more grateful for that. It made my job way, way easier. I totally owe you one, no question about that.

I also understand that moving forward, you’ll feel pressure to call a lot of high-profile NATO meetings, make statements to the UN, suspend this summer’s G8 summit, that sort of thing. I also get that all that kind of stuff is just a formal procedure you have to follow, because really, at this point you’ve laid your cards on the table. So I just want to thank you ahead of time—honestly, from the bottom of my heart—for ensuring that I can just concentrate on doing whatever I want in any formerly Soviet region that is of geopolitical, military, or economic value to Russia without having to worry one iota about suffering any consequences. Thanks for making that 100-percent clear to me.

There is one thing I want to say though, and I feel a little silly admitting this, but there was actually a moment earlier when I did feel a little dread. For one unnerving second there, I thought you imposed sanctions on Russia’s broad national economy, but then I saw the sanctions were just directed at a few of my advisers and some bank I don’t care about. Boy, talk about a major relief!

But you know, I really shouldn’t have been surprised, given how cool you were with my longstanding record of handling opposition political groups or independent-minded journalists, all those gay rights protests that cropped up last year, or even that whole ordeal in 2008 when we tried to take over separatist regions of Georgia by force. Just knowing I’m free to do things my own way—that I can fully ignore any domestic or international laws and any basic principles of human rights—just takes away a ton of the stress involved in making these big decisions.

And, by the way, if you ever need me to play along and act like these little Crimea sanctions and rhetorical warnings are in the least bit threatening, or feign anger by instituting entry bans on U.S. lawmakers and officials, or issue a few sternly worded responses to the international community’s condemnations, I’m completely down with that.

I just hope you’ll all continue being so nice and accommodating moving forward—especially with what I’ve got planned for the rest of Ukraine over the next few months.

---An exclusive from The Onion
http://www.theonion.com/articles/thanks-...ing,35584/

[HairOfTheDog]

Putin Making Obama Nervous

Despite Russian reassurances that Moscow’s troop buildup along Ukraine’s eastern frontier is for a military exercise, its growing scale is making U.S. officials nervous about its ultimate aim.

President Barack Obama on Friday urged Russia to stop “intimidating” Ukraine and to pull its troops back to “de-escalate the situation.” He told CBS that the troop buildup may “be an effort to intimidate Ukraine, or it may be that [Russia has] additional plans.” (HOTD: Yeah, I don't think telling Putin to stop is gonna make him pull back the troops and go home -- call me psychic.)

Pentagon officials say they believe there could be close to 50,000 Russian troops bordering the former Soviet republic and inside Crimea, recently seized and annexed by Moscow. That estimate is double earlier assessments, and means Russian President Vladimir Putin could order a lighting strike into Ukrainian territory with the forces already in place. The higher troop count was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

“We continue to see the Russian military reinforce units on their side of the border with Ukraine to the south and to the east of Ukraine,” Rear Admiral John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said Thursday. “They continue to reinforce and it continues to be unclear exactly what the intent there is.”

Full story: http://time.com/41490/russia-ukraine-crimea-putin/

[HairOfTheDog]

IS A CIVIL WAR BREWING?



I don't have a good sense as to how much of this is rhetoric vs. a real threat -- is Ukraine stoking the violent protests to vie for more EU and US support and investment? Is Putin really interested in all of the Ukraine, rather than just Crimea, after all?

Snip:
The escalating conflict in Ukraine "essentially puts the nation on the brink of civil war," Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday.

With pro-Russian militants seizing government and police buildings in as many as 10 towns and cities in eastern Ukraine, acting President Oleksandr Turchynov told Parliament "an anti-terrorist operation" was under way in the region.

The aim of the military operation is to "stop attempts to tear Ukraine to pieces," he told lawmakers.

There were conflicting reports about casualties, with Russian state-run media citing varying casualty claims supplied by militants. According to the reports, there were either two injured or four killed, claims that CNN cannot independently verify.

Putin's comments followed similar ones hours earlier from Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned Ukraine was on a violent path.

"Ukraine is on the brink of civil war. It is scary. And I hope that everyone who is responsible for making decisions at the moment -- I mean both, the current Ukrainian authorities, who we can't consider legitimate, but these are the authorities who came to power as result of a coup -- has brains to avoid driving the country to such shocks," he said at a news conference Tuesday in Moscow.

The pro-Russian uprising follows Russia's annexation last month of Ukraine's Crimea region, a move that emboldened other pro-Russian Ukrainians in the country's east to rise up.

Russia has said it reserves the right to intervene to protect the rights of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine.

Full story: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/15/world/...?hpt=hp_t1

[Duchess]

A Russian fighter jet was flying around one of our ships in the sea the other day and it ignored all efforts to communicate.

[HairOfTheDog]

A Russian fighter jet was flying around one of our ships in the sea the other day and it ignored all efforts to communicate.

Things are really heating up now with fatalities reported on both sides.

If Putin's fazed at all by the repeated threats/warnings and condemnations of other world leaders, he's got a great poker face.

Snip:
Russian attempts to start conflict in Ukraine will lead to military conflict in Europe, (Ukranian) Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk warned.

He also charged Russia with aiming to occupy his country "militarily and politically," and said Moscow wants to start a third world war. His strong statement come amid a sharp escalation in tensions.


Russia's defense chief ordered new military drills Thursday near the border with eastern Ukraine after Ukrainian forces said they killed five pro-Russian militants in an operation to clear roadblocks near the city of Slavyansk.

Serhiy Pashinskiy, an aide to acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov, said Friday that the operation had now entered its "second stage," aimed at encircling Slavyansk and cutting off additional supplies or support.

Yatsenyuk said he'd asked Russia to explain the presence of its troops on Ukraine's border within 48 hours -- but 24 hours later, Kiev is still waiting for an official response.

At a news conference Friday in South Korea, Obama said he would be talking to other European leaders about sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. There will be targeted sanctions that are "ready to go," he said, echoing comments he made Thursday in Japan.

"I think it's important for us not to anticipate that the targeted sanctions that we're applying now necessarily solve the problem," he said.

"What we've been trying to do is continually raise the costs for Russia of their actions while still leaving the possibility of them moving in a different direction. And we will continue to keep some arrows in our quiver in the event that we see a further deterioration of the situation over the next several days or weeks."

Obama also praised the unity of other countries in condemning Russian "meddling" in Ukraine.

Full story: http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/25/world/...?hpt=hp_t2

[Duchess]

I don't think Putin fears anyone or anything and I don't believe sanctions will have the result other leaders would like them to. It seems to me that Putin does what he wants to do and doesn't give a fig about anything he is being threatened with.